The first time I travelled to Turkey was as a student backpacker in 1988. I entered via the Greek island of Chios into the port city of Izmir, and took a ‘dolmus’ which is a small, low-cost bus that picks as many people as it can until literally no-one else can fit in. Dolmus is the only Turkish word I remembered from that trip 34 years ago. It means ‘stuffed’ so I can only imagine that the selection of bus name was very deliberate.
Last week I was back in Turkey on vacation with my family and used a dolmus with my wife for the first time since Izmir, 1988. We made it to our destination without any issue, however on the way back we got on the wrong bus and were dropped off 2km from our villa. It was mid-afternoon and high 30’s. There was not a taxi in sight.
Desperately trying to find of a positive spin on our predicament, I started relaying the benefits of getting our steps in for the day, how we now had learnt there were different bus numbers and that this lesson should be seen as a positive etc. It wasn’t working!
Halfway into the trek home and as we approached the outskirts of the small town we were staying in, we arrived at the only large supermarket in the area. Suddenly my wife’s demeanour changed as she had planned to check this supermarket out. She also remembered there was a restaurant she had seen nearby so we stopped for a late lunch. The owner was very friendly and offered to home deliver anything we required during our stay. Suddenly, the best thing that had happened that day was getting on the wrong bus!
The behaviour detailed above of both my wife and I are examples of ‘confirmation bias’ which states that we subconsciously look for evidence to back up our own opinions. It is human nature to try to justify our actions, we prefer not to admit our mistakes and instead look for reasons to justify our actions.
At a psychological level, this tendency is linked to our basic need of self-preservation, a safety mechanism that amongst other things, defends our self-esteem. Considered from this angle, confirmation bias is not ‘bad’ as it protects us. If we were to allow ourselves to accept failure regularly and readily, the consequences in terms of self-esteem, personal performance and mental health would be very negative.
There are however risks associated with conformity bias. For example, in management we may make decisions that confirm our past actions despite them being flawed. After hiring someone, we tend to look for evidence that they were the right person because our judgement as a manager is linked to their success. In this case confirmation bias can cause us to turn a blind eye to issues that should be addressed.
Now that confirmation bias has been introduced, I would like to turn my attention back to the opening story and title of this blog to suggest how we can use confirmation bias as part of an influencing strategy.
I initially tried to influence my wife based on variables that made sense to me, namely doing my daily steps and learning more about the bus system. These didn’t work because they were of no interest or value to my wife.
If we want to influence someone, we need to base our strategy around what is important to them, not us. Human psychology tells us that our target is influenced by confirmation bias, this is a global trait independent of language and culture. If I therefore align my influence strategy with my targets need for self-esteem and support them in confirming their actions, I am far more likely to move them in my direction and have them walk the path with me.
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Interesting! Well observed and written.
You are an angel Niel.. 🖤